Survey suggests other 18 contenders won’t win seats on proportional vote
Of 20 parties contesting the general election, only two are expected to muster proportional votes to win any of the 100 House seats allocated for party-list candidates, a Thammasat-Nation Poll suggested yesterday.
The XL and L parties will share the party-list seats between them at a 67-to-33 ratio, leaving other parties no representation via proportional voting.
The projection is based on voter turnout of 65 per cent.
The M party, which is mounting a fierce campaign to win a House seat in Bangkok, is likely to attract less than 5 per cent of proportional votes, including an estimated 3.2 per cent from the capital.
The Election Commission projects a party would need to win a minimum of 5 per cent of the vote to qualify for one party-list seat.
The newly formed S party is expected to win less than 4 per cent of proportional votes, despite an aggressive campaign billing itself as an alternative to the majors.
The popularity of the XL party has outpaced its L rival in every region barring the South.
Among the minor parties, the S party is seemingly more popular than the M party, even in the M party’s own backyard, the Central region.
Voters nationwide gave top approval ratings to the government’s war on drugs, the village fund and the Bt30 healthcare scheme.
But many respondents disapproved of the government’s handling of the southern violence and its fight against corruption.
Should the voter turnout top 70 per cent, the XL party may secure as many as 70 party-list seats, leaving the rest to the L party.
In another survey by the Interior Ministry’s Department of Provincial Administration, it was found that the XL would sweep as many as 365 of the 500 House seats up for grabs, 68 of them from the party-list system, a source said yesterday.
The L were expected to win 96 seats, 26 of them party-list, the S 29 with six party-list seats and the M 10 with no party-list seats, said the Interior Ministry source.
As a result of election laws governing the publication of poll results, The Nation is using common clothing sizes to identify the largest parties vying for seats in tomorrow’s general election.
Published on February 05, 2005